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Men's College Basketball Game on Kalshi
If California Baptist wins the Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs California Baptist men's college basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 366 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia wins · Virginia | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 303,453 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Bucknell wins · Bucknell | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 99,798 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Illinois wins · Illinois | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 36,679 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Memphis wins · Memphis | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 20,473 | Nov 13, 00:15 UTC |
| Michigan St. wins · Michigan St. | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 15,965 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Delaware St. wins · Delaware St. | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 14,711 | Nov 12, 23:30 UTC |
| Florida St. wins · Florida St. | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 14,129 | Nov 12, 23:00 UTC |
| Florida wins · Florida | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 13,206 | Nov 12, 23:00 UTC |
| Duke wins · Duke | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 13,102 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| NJIT wins · NJIT | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 11,255 | Nov 12, 23:30 UTC |
| Bryant wins · Bryant | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 10,729 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Detroit Mercy wins · Detroit Mercy | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 9,532 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Kentucky wins · Kentucky | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 8,776 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Merrimack wins · Merrimack | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,228 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Texas Tech wins · Texas Tech | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 5,330 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Louisiana-Monroe wins · Louisiana-Monroe | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,975 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Northern Kentucky wins · Northern Kentucky | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 4,362 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Georgetown wins · Georgetown | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,930 | Nov 12, 23:30 UTC |
| Wyoming wins · Wyoming | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 3,820 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| SIU Edwardsville wins · SIU Edwardsville | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,630 | Nov 16, 01:00 UTC |
| St. John's wins · St. John's | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 3,427 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Mississippi Valley St. wins · Mississippi Valley St. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,338 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| Southern University wins · Southern University | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,332 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Murray St. wins · Murray St. | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 3,324 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Northern Arizona wins · Northern Arizona | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,295 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Arkansas-Pine Bluff wins · Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,231 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Prairie View A&M wins · Prairie View A&M | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 3,013 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Xavier wins · Xavier | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,674 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| BYU wins · BYU | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,556 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| SMU wins · SMU | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,527 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Fairfield wins · Fairfield | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,465 | Nov 13, 01:30 UTC |
| Providence wins · Providence | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 2,290 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Kansas wins · Kansas | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 2,199 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| South Alabama wins · South Alabama | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 2,152 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| VCU wins · VCU | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,150 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| TCU wins · TCU | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,087 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Duke wins · Duke | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,004 | Nov 16, 01:00 UTC |
| Elon wins · Elon | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 1,964 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Southeastern Louisiana wins · Southeastern Louisiana | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,932 | Nov 13, 01:30 UTC |
| Florida wins · Florida | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,855 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 366 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.