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Horizon League Conference Tournament on Kalshi
If Youngstown St. is the 2027 Men's College Basketball Horizon League conference tournament champion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA, ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
6%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
11% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6¢ (now) | 0.4¢ | $3.29 | 6.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Northern Kentucky be the Horizon League tournament champions? · Northern Kentucky | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 223 | Mar 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Milwaukee be the Horizon League tournament champions? · Milwaukee | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 199 | Mar 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Wright St. be the Horizon League tournament champions? · Wright St. | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 199 | Mar 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Northern Illinois be the Horizon League tournament champions? · Northern Illinois | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 128 | Mar 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Youngstown St. be the Horizon League tournament champions? · Youngstown St. | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 108 | Mar 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Oakland be the Horizon League tournament champions? · Oakland | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 62 | Mar 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Robert Morris be the Horizon League tournament champions? · Robert Morris | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 41 | Mar 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Green Bay be the Horizon League tournament champions? · Green Bay | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 11 | Mar 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Purdue Fort Wayne be the Horizon League tournament champions? · Purdue Fort Wayne | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Mar 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will IU Indy be the Horizon League tournament champions? · IU Indy | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Mar 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Detroit Mercy be the Horizon League tournament champions? · Detroit Mercy | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Mar 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Cleveland St. be the Horizon League tournament champions? · Cleveland St. | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Mar 29, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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