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Men's College Basketball Race to Points on Kalshi
If Kentucky is the first to score 10 points in the Kansas vs Kentucky men's college basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky reaches 10 points first · Kentucky | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kansas reaches 10 points first · Kansas | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Texas Tech reaches 10 points first · Texas Tech | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Illinois reaches 10 points first · Illinois | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Vanderbilt reaches 10 points first · Vanderbilt | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:15 UTC |
| Memphis reaches 10 points first · Memphis | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:15 UTC |
| Michigan St. reaches 10 points first · Michigan St. | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Duke reaches 10 points first · Duke | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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