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Summit League Conference Tournament on Kalshi
If St. Thomas is the 2027 Men's College Basketball Summit League conference tournament champion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA, ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
6%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
11% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6¢ (now) | 0.4¢ | $3.29 | 6.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will South Dakota St. be the Summit League tournament champions? · South Dakota St. | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 284 | Mar 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will St. Thomas be the Summit League tournament champions? · St. Thomas | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 47 | Mar 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will North Dakota St. be the Summit League tournament champions? · North Dakota St. | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 43 | Mar 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will North Dakota be the Summit League tournament champions? · North Dakota | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 21 | Mar 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will Kansas City be the Summit League tournament champions? · Kansas City | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 11 | Mar 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will South Dakota be the Summit League tournament champions? · South Dakota | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Mar 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will Oral Roberts be the Summit League tournament champions? · Oral Roberts | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Mar 28, 22:00 UTC |
| Will Omaha be the Summit League tournament champions? · Omaha | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Mar 28, 22:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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