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Men's College Basketball Winning Margin on Kalshi
If USC wins the game by 6 to 10 points in the USC vs California men's college basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 48 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC wins by 6 to 10 points · USC wins by 6-10 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 04:00 UTC |
| USC wins by 21 or more points · USC wins by 21+ points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 04:00 UTC |
| USC wins by 1 to 5 points · USC wins by 1-5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 04:00 UTC |
| USC wins by 11 to 20 points · USC wins by 11-20 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 04:00 UTC |
| California wins by 6 to 10 points · California wins by 6-10 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 04:00 UTC |
| California wins by 21 or more points · California wins by 21+ points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 04:00 UTC |
| California wins by 1 to 5 points · California wins by 1-5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 04:00 UTC |
| California wins by 11 to 20 points · California wins by 11-20 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 04:00 UTC |
| Michigan wins by 6 to 10 points · Michigan wins by 6-10 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Michigan wins by 21 or more points · Michigan wins by 21+ points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Michigan wins by 1 to 5 points · Michigan wins by 1-5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Michigan wins by 11 to 20 points · Michigan wins by 11-20 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Marquette wins by 6 to 10 points · Marquette wins by 6-10 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Marquette wins by 21 or more points · Marquette wins by 21+ points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Marquette wins by 1 to 5 points · Marquette wins by 1-5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Marquette wins by 11 to 20 points · Marquette wins by 11-20 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Kentucky wins by 6 to 10 points · Kentucky wins by 6-10 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kentucky wins by 21 or more points · Kentucky wins by 21+ points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kentucky wins by 1 to 5 points · Kentucky wins by 1-5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kentucky wins by 11 to 20 points · Kentucky wins by 11-20 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kansas wins by 6 to 10 points · Kansas wins by 6-10 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kansas wins by 21 or more points · Kansas wins by 21+ points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kansas wins by 1 to 5 points · Kansas wins by 1-5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kansas wins by 11 to 20 points · Kansas wins by 11-20 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Texas Tech wins by 6 to 10 points · Texas Tech wins by 6-10 points | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Texas Tech wins by 21 or more points · Texas Tech wins by 21+ points | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Texas Tech wins by 1 to 5 points · Texas Tech wins by 1-5 points | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Texas Tech wins by 11 to 20 points · Texas Tech wins by 11-20 points | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Illinois wins by 6 to 10 points · Illinois wins by 6-10 points | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Illinois wins by 21 or more points · Illinois wins by 21+ points | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Illinois wins by 1 to 5 points · Illinois wins by 1-5 points | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Illinois wins by 11 to 20 points · Illinois wins by 11-20 points | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Vanderbilt wins by 6 to 10 points · Vanderbilt wins by 6-10 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:15 UTC |
| Vanderbilt wins by 26 or more points · Vanderbilt wins by 26+ points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:15 UTC |
| Vanderbilt wins by 1 to 5 points · Vanderbilt wins by 1-5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:15 UTC |
| Vanderbilt wins by 16 to 25 points · Vanderbilt wins by 16-25 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:15 UTC |
| Vanderbilt wins by 11 to 15 points · Vanderbilt wins by 11-15 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:15 UTC |
| Memphis wins by 6 to 10 points · Memphis wins by 6-10 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:15 UTC |
| Memphis wins by 1 to 5 points · Memphis wins by 1-5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:15 UTC |
| Memphis wins by 11 or more points · Memphis wins by 11+ points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:15 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 48 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.