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Men's College Basketball Win Totals on Kalshi
If the Ohio St. men's college basketball team has at least 30 wins in the 2026-27 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 172 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Duke win at least 27 games this season? · 27+ wins | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 1,526 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Michigan win at least 15 games this season? · 15+ wins | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 950 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Virginia win at least 21 games this season? · 21+ wins | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 919 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will North Carolina win at least 21 games this season? · 21+ wins | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 797 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Virginia win at least 27 games this season? · 27+ wins | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 742 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will UConn win at least 24 games this season? · 24+ wins | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 646 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Arizona win at least 27 games this season? · 27+ wins | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 489 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Virginia win at least 24 games this season? · 24+ wins | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 480 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will St. John's win at least 24 games this season? · 24+ wins | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 445 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Kansas win at least 24 games this season? · 24+ wins | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 439 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Kentucky win at least 21 games this season? · 21+ wins | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 406 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Gonzaga win at least 27 games this season? · 27+ wins | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 363 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will St. John's win at least 27 games this season? · 27+ wins | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 362 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Michigan St. win at least 24 games this season? · 24+ wins | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 355 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Arkansas win at least 24 games this season? · 24+ wins | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 347 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Illinois win at least 24 games this season? · 24+ wins | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 317 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Florida win at least 27 games this season? · 27+ wins | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 315 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will North Carolina win at least 24 games this season? · 24+ wins | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 288 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Arizona win at least 24 games this season? · 24+ wins | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 259 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will UConn win at least 27 games this season? · 27+ wins | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 250 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Purdue win at least 24 games this season? · 24+ wins | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 230 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Kentucky win at least 24 games this season? · 24+ wins | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 201 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Illinois win at least 27 games this season? · 27+ wins | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 195 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Arkansas win at least 27 games this season? · 27+ wins | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 191 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Louisville win at least 21 games this season? · 21+ wins | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 190 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Michigan St. win at least 21 games this season? · 21+ wins | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 188 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Michigan St. win at least 18 games this season? · 18+ wins | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 162 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tennessee win at least 24 games this season? · 24+ wins | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 158 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Michigan St. win at least 27 games this season? · 27+ wins | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 157 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Alabama win at least 24 games this season? · 24+ wins | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 143 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Louisville win at least 24 games this season? · 24+ wins | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 129 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Gonzaga win at least 24 games this season? · 24+ wins | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 126 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Florida win at least 24 games this season? · 24+ wins | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 126 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Arkansas win at least 21 games this season? · 21+ wins | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 114 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Alabama win at least 18 games this season? · 18+ wins | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 110 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Kansas win at least 18 games this season? · 18+ wins | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 92 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will North Carolina win at least 15 games this season? · 15+ wins | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 86 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Kansas win at least 15 games this season? · 15+ wins | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 80 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Kentucky win at least 18 games this season? · 18+ wins | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 78 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Alabama win at least 21 games this season? · 21+ wins | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 77 | Mar 21, 14:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 172 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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