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Women's College Basketball 1st Half Winner on Kalshi
If neither team wins the 1st half of the Colorado vs San Diego St. women's college basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
96% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 48¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.82 | 49.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville wins the 1st half · Louisville | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 120 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| LSU wins the 1st half · LSU | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 119 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| McNeese wins the 1st half · McNeese | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 20 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Lindenwood wins the 1st half · Lindenwood | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 20 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| USC wins the 1st half · USC | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 7 | Nov 13, 03:30 UTC |
| Tie in the 1st half · Tie | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| San Diego St. wins the 1st half · San Diego St. | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| Colorado wins the 1st half · Colorado | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| Tie in the 1st half · Tie | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Texas wins the 1st half · Texas | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| South Dakota St. wins the 1st half · South Dakota St. | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Tie in the 1st half · Tie | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:30 UTC |
| Charleston wins the 1st half · Charleston | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:30 UTC |
| Tie in the 1st half · Tie | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Villanova wins the 1st half · Villanova | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Tie in the 1st half · Tie | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Princeton wins the 1st half · Princeton | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Tie in the 1st half · Tie | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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