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NCAAWB Conference to win Championship on Kalshi
If any women's basketball team from the SEC wins the DI women's college basketball national championship in the 2026-27 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
95% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 47¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.86 | 48.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a team from the SEC win the NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Championship for the 2026-27 season? · SEC | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Apr 14, 14:00 UTC |
| Will a team outside the Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC, and SEC win the NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Championship for the 2026-27 season? · Other | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Apr 14, 14:00 UTC |
| Will a team from the Big Ten win the NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Championship for the 2026-27 season? · Big Ten | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Apr 14, 14:00 UTC |
| Will a team from the Big East win the NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Championship for the 2026-27 season? · Big East | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Apr 14, 14:00 UTC |
| Will a team from the Big 12 win the NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Championship for the 2026-27 season? · Big 12 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Apr 14, 14:00 UTC |
| Will a team from the ACC win the NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Championship for the 2026-27 season? · ACC | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Apr 14, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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