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Women's College Basketball Game on Kalshi
If Tennessee St. wins the Mississippi Valley St. vs Tennessee St. women's college basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 350 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
95% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 47¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.86 | 48.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Presbyterian wins · Presbyterian | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 304,084 | Nov 12, 17:00 UTC |
| Bellarmine wins · Bellarmine | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 286,010 | Nov 12, 16:00 UTC |
| Cleveland St. wins · Cleveland St. | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 128,218 | Nov 12, 17:00 UTC |
| Drake wins · Drake | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 121,359 | Nov 12, 17:00 UTC |
| Furman wins · Furman | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 120,400 | Nov 12, 17:00 UTC |
| Bowling Green wins · Bowling Green | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 106,869 | Nov 12, 16:00 UTC |
| Marquette wins · Marquette | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 89,172 | Nov 12, 17:00 UTC |
| Auburn wins · Auburn | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 31,997 | Nov 12, 17:00 UTC |
| Charleston wins · Charleston | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 25,151 | Nov 14, 19:00 UTC |
| California wins · California | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 25,079 | Nov 14, 19:00 UTC |
| Montana wins · Montana | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 21,514 | Nov 12, 17:00 UTC |
| Wichita St. wins · Wichita St. | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 16,839 | Nov 12, 17:00 UTC |
| Charleston wins · Charleston | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 16,256 | Nov 13, 03:30 UTC |
| New Haven wins · New Haven | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 11,030 | Nov 12, 23:30 UTC |
| Detroit Mercy wins · Detroit Mercy | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 7,580 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Missouri St. wins · Missouri St. | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 7,505 | Nov 12, 17:00 UTC |
| Iona wins · Iona | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,397 | Nov 12, 22:00 UTC |
| Yale wins · Yale | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 5,573 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| McNeese wins · McNeese | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,404 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Kansas St. wins · Kansas St. | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 5,201 | Nov 12, 17:00 UTC |
| San Jose St. wins · San Jose St. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,081 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Lindenwood wins · Lindenwood | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,488 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Southern University wins · Southern University | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,739 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Marshall wins · Marshall | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 2,897 | Nov 12, 23:00 UTC |
| Loyola Maryland wins · Loyola Maryland | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 2,630 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Houston wins · Houston | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 2,607 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Georgia wins · Georgia | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,197 | Nov 13, 23:30 UTC |
| North Carolina A&T wins · North Carolina A&T | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,164 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| West Florida wins · West Florida | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,043 | Nov 13, 23:00 UTC |
| Villanova wins · Villanova | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 1,908 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Washington wins · Washington | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,793 | Nov 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Arizona St. wins · Arizona St. | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 1,766 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kansas wins · Kansas | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,763 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Merrimack wins · Merrimack | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,627 | Nov 15, 00:00 UTC |
| Saint Peter's wins · Saint Peter's | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,625 | Nov 15, 00:00 UTC |
| Vanderbilt wins · Vanderbilt | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,578 | Nov 14, 00:30 UTC |
| Michigan St. wins · Michigan St. | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,575 | Nov 13, 23:30 UTC |
| Norfolk St. wins · Norfolk St. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,552 | Nov 15, 00:00 UTC |
| Cal State Bakersfield wins · Cal State Bakersfield | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,524 | Nov 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Miami (FL) wins · Miami (FL) | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,503 | Nov 15, 00:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 350 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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