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If Notre Dame Football joins SEC before their first game of the 2027-28 College Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
6%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
12% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6¢ (now) | 0.4¢ | $3.29 | 6.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Notre Dame Football join Any Conference before their first game of the 2027-28 College Football Season? · Any Conference | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 1,431 | Sep 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Notre Dame Football join the ACC before their first game of the 2027-28 College Football Season? · ACC | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 754 | Sep 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Notre Dame Football join the SEC before their first game of the 2027-28 College Football Season? · SEC | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 482 | Sep 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Notre Dame Football join the Big 12 before their first game of the 2027-28 College Football Season? · Big 12 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 315 | Sep 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Notre Dame Football join the Big Ten before their first game of the 2027-28 College Football Season? · Big Ten | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 211 | Sep 30, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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