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Nebraska corn yield on Kalshi
If USDA NASS reports that Nebraska’s corn for grain yield per harvested acre in 2026 is above 170 bu/acre, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Market says (typical open contract)
82%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
35% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 82¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $0.63 | 83.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nebraska’s corn for grain yield per harvested acre in 2026 be above 185 bu/acre? · Above 185 bu/acre | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 49,818 | Jan 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Nebraska’s corn for grain yield per harvested acre in 2026 be above 170 bu/acre? · Above 170 bu/acre | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 46,392 | Jan 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Nebraska’s corn for grain yield per harvested acre in 2026 be above 190 bu/acre? · Above 190 bu/acre | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 45,018 | Jan 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Nebraska’s corn for grain yield per harvested acre in 2026 be above 180 bu/acre? · Above 180 bu/acre | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 34,115 | Jan 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Nebraska’s corn for grain yield per harvested acre in 2026 be above 175 bu/acre? · Above 175 bu/acre | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 14,309 | Jan 31, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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