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when will entity complete project on Kalshi
If Netflix completes Phase 1B of Netflix Studios Fort Monmouth Before Dec 21, 2028, the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fox, New York Times, CBS, the State of New Jersey, Bloomberg, Netflix, AP, The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, MSNBC, CNN, The Washington Post, ABC.
Market says (typical open contract)
62%
Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
77% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 61¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.37 | 62.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netflix complete Phase 1A of Netflix Studios Fort Monmouth before Sep 23, 2027? · Before Sep 23, 2027 | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 3,904 | Sep 23, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Netflix complete Phase 1B of Netflix Studios Fort Monmouth before Dec 21, 2028? · Before Dec 21, 2028 | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 43 | Dec 21, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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