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Will the 9th Circuit ease the Nexstar-Tegna injunction? on Kalshi
If the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit vacates, reverses, or narrows the hold-separate preliminary injunction entered April 17, 2026, in whole or in part and on any ground in DIRECTV, LLC v. Nexstar Media Group, Inc., No. 26-2490, or any consolidated or related appeal from In re: Nexstar-TEGNA Merger Litigation, No. 2:26-cv-00976 (E.D. Cal.) before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: PACER, United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $2.63 | 26.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit rule vacates, reverses, or narrows the hold-separate preliminary injunction entered April 17, 2026, in whole or in part and on any ground? · Before 2028 | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.