Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Next Chancellor of Germany on Kalshi
If No one becomes Chancellor of Germany as a result of government formation following the next German federal election and meets all constitutional requirements before Aug 26, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Der Bundeswahlleiter.
Market says (typical open contract)
9%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
18% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9¢ (now) | 0.6¢ | $3.19 | 9.6% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alice Weidel become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election? · Alice Weidel | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 3,370 | Aug 26, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Friedrich Merz become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election? · Friedrich Merz | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 718 | Aug 26, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Felix Banaszak become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election? · Felix Banaszak | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 181 | Aug 26, 14:00 UTC |
| Will No one become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election? · No one | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 39 | Aug 26, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Lars Klingbeil become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election? · Lars Klingbeil | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Aug 26, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Baerbel Bas become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election? · Baerbel Bas | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Aug 26, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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