What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 12¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.06.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 13% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 12%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Next NATO Secretary-General on Kalshi

If Ursula von der Leyen formally holds the position of Secretary General of NATO, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Deutsche Welle, <company>, ABC, BBC News, Fox News, CNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, Financial Times, CBS, NBC, <organization>, agency, The Washington Post, Reuters, CNN, ABC News Australia, the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held, MSNBC, the Associated Press, Politico, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

12%

Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

25% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
12¢ (now)	0.7¢	$3.08	12.7%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Kaja Kallas be the next Secretary General of NATO? · Kaja Kallas	16¢	16%	0.9¢	—	32%	1,962	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC
Will Ben Wallace be the next Secretary General of NATO? · Ben Wallace	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	1,181	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC
Will Alexander Stubb be the next Secretary General of NATO? · Alexander Stubb	12¢	12%	0.8¢	—	25%	1,062	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC
Will Keir Starmer be the next Secretary General of NATO? · Keir Starmer	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	39%	1,011	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC
Will Ursula von der Leyen be the next Secretary General of NATO? · Ursula von der Leyen	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	713	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next Secretary General of NATO? · Mette Frederiksen	31¢	31%	1.5¢	—	61%	705	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC
Will Petr Pavel be the next Secretary General of NATO? · Petr Pavel	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	651	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC
Will Klaus Iohannis be the next Secretary General of NATO? · Klaus Iohannis	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	383	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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