What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 1¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.47.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 1% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 1%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

MLB Player Next Team on Kalshi

If Rafael Devers's next team is Washington before Mar 25, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fox Sports, ESPN.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 310 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

2% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.47	1.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
What will be Mike Trout's next team? · Los Angeles A	88¢	88%	0.7¢	—	23%	40,441	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Mike Trout's next team? · Philadelphia	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	34,737	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Aroldis Chapman's next team? · Boston	63¢	63%	1.6¢	—	74%	34,172	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Jarren Duran's next team? · Boston	34¢	34%	1.6¢	—	69%	15,561	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Sandy Alcantara's next team? · Miami	95¢	95%	0.3¢	—	10%	14,405	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Joe Ryan's next team? · Minnesota	72¢	72%	1.4¢	—	57%	14,380	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Rafael Devers's next team? · San Francisco	76¢	76%	1.3¢	—	47%	9,219	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Christian Walker's next team? · Houston	58¢	58%	1.7¢	—	84%	5,189	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Mike Trout's next team? · Kansas City	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	4,237	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Fernando Tatis Jr.'s next team? · San Diego	75¢	75%	1.3¢	—	50%	3,707	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Aroldis Chapman's next team? · San Diego	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	3,587	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Sandy Alcantara's next team? · Chicago WS	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	2,933	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Jarren Duran's next team? · Baltimore	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	2,913	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Mike Trout's next team? · Los Angeles D	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	2,848	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Aroldis Chapman's next team? · Philadelphia	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	2,745	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Aroldis Chapman's next team? · Pittsburgh	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	2,598	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Jarren Duran's next team? · Pittsburgh	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	2,449	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Yandy Diaz's next team? · Tampa Bay	68¢	68%	1.5¢	—	63%	2,279	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Luis Severino's next team? · A's	46¢	46%	1.7¢	—	92%	2,267	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Aroldis Chapman's next team? · Chicago WS	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	2,146	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Mike Trout's next team? · Cleveland	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	2,128	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Mike Trout's next team? · Boston	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	2,063	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Mike Trout's next team? · San Diego	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	2,061	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Aroldis Chapman's next team? · Cincinnati	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	2,032	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Mike Trout's next team? · New York Y	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	9%	2,014	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Fernando Tatis Jr.'s next team? · Boston	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,938	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Aroldis Chapman's next team? · Atlanta	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	1,857	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Aroldis Chapman's next team? · Retires / No Team	25¢	25%	1.3¢	—	50%	1,847	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Mike Trout's next team? · Atlanta	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,827	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Rafael Devers's next team? · San Diego	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	1,823	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Sandy Alcantara's next team? · Chicago C	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	1,782	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Jarren Duran's next team? · Colorado	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	1,724	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Sandy Alcantara's next team? · Kansas City	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	1,672	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Jarren Duran's next team? · San Diego	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	1,635	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Aroldis Chapman's next team? · Tampa Bay	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,635	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Sandy Alcantara's next team? · Atlanta	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	1,634	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Mike Trout's next team? · Milwaukee	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,619	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Jarren Duran's next team? · Houston	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	1,588	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Aroldis Chapman's next team? · Washington	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	1,581	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC
What will be Joe Ryan's next team? · Chicago C	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	1,574	Mar 25, 03:59 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 310 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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