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Pro Football 1st Half Spread on Kalshi
If Washington wins by more than 7.5 points in the 1st half of the Washington vs New York G Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
27%
Median YES price across 14 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
54% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27¢ (now) | 1.4¢ | $2.56 | 28.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York G wins 1H by over 2.5 points? · New York G wins by over 2.5 points | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 74 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Washington wins 1H by over 7.5 points? · Washington wins by over 7.5 points | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Washington wins 1H by over 6.5 points? · Washington wins by over 6.5 points | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Washington wins 1H by over 4.5 points? · Washington wins by over 4.5 points | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Washington wins 1H by over 3.5 points? · Washington wins by over 3.5 points | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Washington wins 1H by over 2.5 points? · Washington wins by over 2.5 points | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Washington wins 1H by over 10.5 points? · Washington wins by over 10.5 points | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Washington wins 1H by over 9.5 points? · Washington wins by over 9.5 points | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| New York G wins 1H by over 7.5 points? · New York G wins by over 7.5 points | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| New York G wins 1H by over 6.5 points? · New York G wins by over 6.5 points | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| New York G wins 1H by over 4.5 points? · New York G wins by over 4.5 points | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| New York G wins 1H by over 3.5 points? · New York G wins by over 3.5 points | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| New York G wins 1H by over 10.5 points? · New York G wins by over 10.5 points | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| New York G wins 1H by over 9.5 points? · New York G wins by over 9.5 points | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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