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American Football Conference Champion on Kalshi
If Tennessee wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
7% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pittsburgh win the Pro Football AFC Championship? · Pittsburgh | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 1,754,379 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cleveland win the Pro Football AFC Championship? · Cleveland | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,349,829 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Houston win the Pro Football AFC Championship? · Houston | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,275,630 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jacksonville win the Pro Football AFC Championship? · Jacksonville | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 1,136,676 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Denver win the Pro Football AFC Championship? · Denver | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 1,122,277 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC Championship? · Kansas City | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 1,087,707 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Buffalo win the Pro Football AFC Championship? · Buffalo | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 1,080,956 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cincinnati win the Pro Football AFC Championship? · Cincinnati | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 1,080,049 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Las Vegas win the Pro Football AFC Championship? · Las Vegas | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,037,666 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Baltimore win the Pro Football AFC Championship? · Baltimore | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 779,775 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Will New England win the Pro Football AFC Championship? · New England | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 702,452 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Will New York J win the Pro Football AFC Championship? · New York J | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 618,987 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Indianapolis win the Pro Football AFC Championship? · Indianapolis | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 548,245 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Los Angeles C win the Pro Football AFC Championship? · Los Angeles C | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 492,406 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tennessee win the Pro Football AFC Championship? · Tennessee | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 385,244 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Miami win the Pro Football AFC Championship? · Miami | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 285,312 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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