Markets › Kalshi › Sports
NFL Coaches Fired on Kalshi
If the head coach of the Cincinnati Pro Football team leaves, or announces they will leave, before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, ABC, The Information, CBS, ESPN, The New York Times, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, the Associated Press, Politico.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 32 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt LaFleur out before Mar 1, 2027 · Matt LaFleur | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 14,016 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Nick Sirianni out before Mar 1, 2027 · Nick Sirianni | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 5,043 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Dan Quinn out before Mar 1, 2027 · Dan Quinn | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 2,916 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Shane Steichen out before Mar 1, 2027 · Shane Steichen | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 2,802 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Jim Harbaugh out before Mar 1, 2027 · Jim Harbaugh | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 2,587 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Aaron Glenn out before Mar 1, 2027 · Aaron Glenn | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 2,537 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Todd Bowles out before Mar 1, 2027 · Todd Bowles | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 2,297 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Dave Canales out before Mar 1, 2027 · Dave Canales | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 2,050 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Ben Johnson out before Mar 1, 2027 · Ben Johnson | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,988 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Mike LaFleur out before Mar 1, 2027 · Mike LaFleur | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 1,574 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Brian Schottenheimer out before Mar 1, 2027 · Brian Schottenheimer | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 1,475 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Mike Macdonald out before Mar 1, 2027 · Mike Macdonald | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 1,446 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Klint Kubiak out before Mar 1, 2027 · Klint Kubiak | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 1,360 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Robert Saleh out before Mar 1, 2027 · Robert Saleh | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 1,195 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Sean McVay out before Mar 1, 2027 · Sean McVay | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 1,073 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Todd Monken out before Mar 1, 2027 · Todd Monken | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 974 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Jeff Hafley out before Mar 1, 2027 · Jeff Hafley | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 940 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Zac Taylor out before Mar 1, 2027 · Zac Taylor | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 923 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Dan Campbell out before Mar 1, 2027 · Dan Campbell | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 816 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Kyle Shanahan out before Mar 1, 2027 · Kyle Shanahan | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 604 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| DeMeco Ryans out before Mar 1, 2027 · DeMeco Ryans | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 505 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Kevin O'Connell out before Mar 1, 2027 · Kevin O'Connell | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 403 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Mike McCarthy out before Mar 1, 2027 · Mike McCarthy | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 360 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Kevin Stefanski out before Mar 1, 2027 · Kevin Stefanski | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 305 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Liam Coen out before Mar 1, 2027 · Liam Coen | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 255 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Jesse Minter out before Mar 1, 2027 · Jesse Minter | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 250 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Andy Reid out before Mar 1, 2027 · Andy Reid | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 171 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Kellen Moore out before Mar 1, 2027 · Kellen Moore | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 139 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Mike Vrabel out before Mar 1, 2027 · Mike Vrabel | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 94 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Joe Brady out before Mar 1, 2027 · Joe Brady | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 52 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Sean Payton out before Mar 1, 2027 · Sean Payton | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| John Harbaugh out before Mar 1, 2027 · John Harbaugh | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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