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Pro Football Player to Make Debut on Kalshi
If Cade Klubnik is listed as the starting quarterback for the first time according to the official depth chart published by his current team between Week 7 and Week 10 in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
42%
Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
84% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 42¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.03 | 43.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Beck first start: Week 11 to Week 14 · Week 11 to Week 14 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 6,495 | Jan 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Carson Beck first start: Week 8 to Week 10 · Week 8 to Week 10 | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 4,331 | Jan 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Carson Beck first start: Does not start in the regular season · Does not start in the regular season | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 3,194 | Jan 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Fernando Mendoza first start: Week 9 to Week 10 · Week 9 to Week 10 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 1,560 | Jan 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Fernando Mendoza first start: Does not start in the regular season · Does not start in the regular season | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 1,149 | Jan 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Fernando Mendoza first start: Week 11 to Week 14 · Week 11 to Week 14 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 1,140 | Jan 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Carson Beck first start: Week 15 to Week 18 · Week 15 to Week 18 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 325 | Jan 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Fernando Mendoza first start: Week 15 to Week 18 · Week 15 to Week 18 | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 17 | Jan 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Cade Klubnik first start: Week 7 to Week 10 · Week 7 to Week 10 | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 6 | Jan 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Cade Klubnik first start: Week 15 to Week 18 · Week 15 to Week 18 | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Jan 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Cade Klubnik first start: Week 11 to Week 14 · Week 11 to Week 14 | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Jan 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Cade Klubnik first start: Does not start in the regular season · Does not start in the regular season | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Jan 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Drew Allar first start: Week 7 to Week 10 · Week 7 to Week 10 | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 0 | Jan 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Drew Allar first start: Week 15 to Week 18 · Week 15 to Week 18 | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Jan 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Drew Allar first start: Week 11 to Week 14 · Week 11 to Week 14 | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Jan 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Drew Allar first start: Does not start in the regular season · Does not start in the regular season | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Jan 19, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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