What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 48¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.82.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 50% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 48%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

NFL Weather Delay on Kalshi

If there is any delay due to weather in the Cincinnati vs Washington Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: NBC, The Associated Press, Yahoo Sports, Fox Sports, TNT Sports, ABC, Sports Illustrated, ESPN, the Governing League, The Washington Post, Bleacher Report, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, CNN, The Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Bloomberg News, Reuters, CBS, The Athletic, The New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

48%

Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

96% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
48¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.82	49.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Los Angeles C vs Baltimore game to be delayed due to weather · Game to be delayed due to weather	46¢	46%	1.7¢	—	92%	85	Nov 18, 01:15 UTC
Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati game to be delayed due to weather · Game to be delayed due to weather	46¢	46%	1.7¢	—	92%	12	Nov 17, 01:20 UTC
Washington vs New York G game to be delayed due to weather · Game to be delayed due to weather	46¢	46%	1.7¢	—	91%	6	Nov 14, 01:15 UTC
Cincinnati vs Washington game to be delayed due to weather · Game to be delayed due to weather	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	96%	0	Nov 25, 01:15 UTC
Minnesota vs San Francisco game to be delayed due to weather · Game to be delayed due to weather	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	96%	0	Nov 24, 01:20 UTC
Las Vegas vs Denver game to be delayed due to weather · Game to be delayed due to weather	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	96%	0	Nov 23, 21:25 UTC
Jacksonville vs New York G game to be delayed due to weather · Game to be delayed due to weather	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	96%	0	Nov 23, 21:25 UTC
Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia game to be delayed due to weather · Game to be delayed due to weather	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	96%	0	Nov 23, 18:00 UTC
New Orleans vs Chicago game to be delayed due to weather · Game to be delayed due to weather	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	96%	0	Nov 23, 18:00 UTC
Miami vs Buffalo game to be delayed due to weather · Game to be delayed due to weather	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	96%	0	Nov 23, 18:00 UTC
Baltimore vs Carolina game to be delayed due to weather · Game to be delayed due to weather	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	96%	0	Nov 23, 18:00 UTC
Arizona vs Kansas City game to be delayed due to weather · Game to be delayed due to weather	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	96%	0	Nov 23, 18:00 UTC
Minnesota vs Green Bay game to be delayed due to weather · Game to be delayed due to weather	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	95%	0	Nov 16, 18:00 UTC
Jacksonville vs Tennessee game to be delayed due to weather · Game to be delayed due to weather	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	95%	0	Nov 16, 18:00 UTC
Houston vs Cleveland game to be delayed due to weather · Game to be delayed due to weather	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	95%	0	Nov 16, 18:00 UTC
Buffalo vs New York J game to be delayed due to weather · Game to be delayed due to weather	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	95%	0	Nov 16, 18:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.