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Pro Football Quarterback Drafted on Kalshi
If Trinidad Chambliss is the 3rd Quarterback drafted in the 2027 Pro Football Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
29%
Median YES price across 45 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
58% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29¢ (now) | 1.4¢ | $2.49 | 30.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Austin Simmons be the 1st Quarterback drafted? · Austin Simmons | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 6,154 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Drew Mestemaker be the 1st Quarterback drafted? · Drew Mestemaker | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 3,410 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will CJ Carr be the 1st Quarterback drafted? · CJ Carr | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 2,336 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will LaNorris Sellers be the 1st Quarterback drafted? · LaNorris Sellers | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,243 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Trinidad Chambliss be the 1st Quarterback drafted? · Trinidad Chambliss | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 903 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Darian Mensah be the 1st Quarterback drafted? · Darian Mensah | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 531 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jayden Maiava be the 1st Quarterback drafted? · Jayden Maiava | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 523 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Arch Manning be the 1st Quarterback drafted? · Arch Manning | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 517 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Dante Moore be the 1st Quarterback drafted? · Dante Moore | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 480 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Drew Mestemaker be the 2nd Quarterback drafted? · Drew Mestemaker | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 1 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Darian Mensah be the 2nd Quarterback drafted? · Darian Mensah | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Trinidad Chambliss be the 3rd Quarterback drafted? · Trinidad Chambliss | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Sam Leavitt be the 3rd Quarterback drafted? · Sam Leavitt | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Nico Iamaleava be the 3rd Quarterback drafted? · Nico Iamaleava | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will LaNorris Sellers be the 3rd Quarterback drafted? · LaNorris Sellers | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Katin Houser be the 3rd Quarterback drafted? · Katin Houser | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Julian Sayin be the 3rd Quarterback drafted? · Julian Sayin | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jayden Maiava be the 3rd Quarterback drafted? · Jayden Maiava | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Josh Hoover be the 3rd Quarterback drafted? · Josh Hoover | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Dante Moore be the 3rd Quarterback drafted? · Dante Moore | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Drew Mestemaker be the 3rd Quarterback drafted? · Drew Mestemaker | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Darian Mensah be the 3rd Quarterback drafted? · Darian Mensah | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Drake Lindsey be the 3rd Quarterback drafted? · Drake Lindsey | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will CJ Carr be the 3rd Quarterback drafted? · CJ Carr | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 0 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Austin Simmons be the 3rd Quarterback drafted? · Austin Simmons | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Arch Manning be the 3rd Quarterback drafted? · Arch Manning | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 0 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Trinidad Chambliss be the 2nd Quarterback drafted? · Trinidad Chambliss | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Sam Leavitt be the 2nd Quarterback drafted? · Sam Leavitt | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Nico Iamaleava be the 2nd Quarterback drafted? · Nico Iamaleava | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will LaNorris Sellers be the 2nd Quarterback drafted? · LaNorris Sellers | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Katin Houser be the 2nd Quarterback drafted? · Katin Houser | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Julian Sayin be the 2nd Quarterback drafted? · Julian Sayin | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jayden Maiava be the 2nd Quarterback drafted? · Jayden Maiava | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Josh Hoover be the 2nd Quarterback drafted? · Josh Hoover | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Dante Moore be the 2nd Quarterback drafted? · Dante Moore | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Drake Lindsey be the 2nd Quarterback drafted? · Drake Lindsey | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 0 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will CJ Carr be the 2nd Quarterback drafted? · CJ Carr | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Austin Simmons be the 2nd Quarterback drafted? · Austin Simmons | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Arch Manning be the 2nd Quarterback drafted? · Arch Manning | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Sam Leavitt be the 1st Quarterback drafted? · Sam Leavitt | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Jun 07, 14:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 45 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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