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NFL Game on Kalshi
If Washington wins the Cincinnati vs Washington Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
52%
Median YES price across 54 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
95% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 53¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.65 | 54.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York G wins · New York G | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 453,814 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Las Vegas wins · Las Vegas | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 166,006 | Nov 17, 21:05 UTC |
| San Francisco wins · San Francisco | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 128,625 | Nov 17, 21:25 UTC |
| Detroit wins · Detroit | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 125,338 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Jacksonville wins · Jacksonville | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 120,075 | Nov 17, 18:00 UTC |
| Washington wins · Washington | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 107,982 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| New England wins · New England | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 104,820 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Seattle wins · Seattle | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 100,789 | Nov 17, 21:05 UTC |
| Kansas City wins · Kansas City | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 76,625 | Nov 17, 18:00 UTC |
| Pittsburgh wins · Pittsburgh | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 74,824 | Nov 18, 01:20 UTC |
| Buffalo wins · Buffalo | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 73,013 | Nov 17, 18:00 UTC |
| Green Bay wins · Green Bay | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 62,622 | Nov 17, 18:00 UTC |
| Cincinnati wins · Cincinnati | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 44,643 | Nov 18, 01:20 UTC |
| Dallas wins · Dallas | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 40,394 | Nov 17, 21:25 UTC |
| Carolina wins · Carolina | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 39,156 | Nov 17, 18:00 UTC |
| Los Angeles C wins · Los Angeles C | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 37,269 | Nov 19, 01:15 UTC |
| Minnesota wins · Minnesota | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 37,101 | Nov 17, 18:00 UTC |
| Tennessee wins · Tennessee | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 34,887 | Nov 17, 18:00 UTC |
| Baltimore wins · Baltimore | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 34,495 | Nov 19, 01:15 UTC |
| Cleveland wins · Cleveland | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 29,850 | Nov 17, 18:00 UTC |
| Arizona wins · Arizona | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 23,571 | Nov 17, 21:05 UTC |
| Los Angeles R wins · Los Angeles R | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 23,165 | Nov 17, 21:05 UTC |
| New York J wins · New York J | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 21,930 | Nov 17, 18:00 UTC |
| New Orleans wins · New Orleans | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 21,752 | Nov 17, 18:00 UTC |
| Atlanta wins · Atlanta | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 16,182 | Nov 17, 18:00 UTC |
| Houston wins · Houston | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 16,145 | Nov 17, 18:00 UTC |
| Miami wins · Miami | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 7,451 | Nov 17, 18:00 UTC |
| Indianapolis wins · Indianapolis | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 6,722 | Nov 17, 18:00 UTC |
| Chicago wins · Chicago | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 1,416 | Nov 24, 18:00 UTC |
| Houston wins · Houston | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 605 | Nov 22, 01:15 UTC |
| Buffalo wins · Buffalo | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 390 | Nov 24, 18:00 UTC |
| New Orleans wins · New Orleans | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 350 | Nov 24, 18:00 UTC |
| Denver wins · Denver | 67¢ | 67% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 94 | Nov 24, 21:25 UTC |
| San Francisco wins · San Francisco | 65¢ | 65% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 78 | Nov 25, 01:20 UTC |
| Arizona wins · Arizona | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 53 | Nov 24, 18:00 UTC |
| Pittsburgh wins · Pittsburgh | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 47 | Nov 24, 18:00 UTC |
| Indianapolis wins · Indianapolis | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 37 | Nov 22, 01:15 UTC |
| Kansas City wins · Kansas City | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 36 | Nov 24, 18:00 UTC |
| Tampa Bay wins · Tampa Bay | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 22 | Nov 24, 18:00 UTC |
| Las Vegas wins · Las Vegas | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 11 | Nov 24, 21:25 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 54 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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