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Receptions Ladder on Kalshi

If Each Yes contract pays $0.05 per reception recorded by Stefon Diggs during the Washington vs New York G Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 12, 2026. Each No contract pays $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Yes pays out at most $1.00. Then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.

Market says (typical open contract)
24%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
48% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
24¢ (now)1.3¢$2.6625.3%
30¢1.5¢$2.4531.5%
50¢1.8¢$1.7551.7%
70¢1.5¢$1.0571.5%
90¢0.6¢$0.3590.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Malik Nabers Receptions Ladder · Malik Nabers29¢29%1.4¢—58%6Nov 15, 01:15 UTC
Stefon Diggs Receptions Ladder · Stefon Diggs20¢20%1.1¢—41%0Nov 15, 01:15 UTC
Isaiah Likely Receptions Ladder · Isaiah Likely24¢24%1.3¢—48%0Nov 15, 01:15 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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