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Longest Reception on Kalshi
If Stefon Diggs records a longest reception of over 18.5 yards in the Washington vs New York G Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs: longest reception over 18.5 yards · Stefon Diggs: over 18.5 yards | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Rachaad White: longest reception over 8.5 yards · Rachaad White: over 8.5 yards | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Antonio Williams: longest reception over 18.5 yards · Antonio Williams: over 18.5 yards | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Malik Nabers: longest reception over 24.5 yards · Malik Nabers: over 24.5 yards | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Malachi Fields: longest reception over 16.5 yards · Malachi Fields: over 16.5 yards | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Isaiah Likely: longest reception over 18.5 yards · Isaiah Likely: over 18.5 yards | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Devin Singletary: longest reception over 7.5 yards · Devin Singletary: over 7.5 yards | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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