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AP Pro Football Regular Season MVP on Kalshi
If Kirk Cousins wins the Pro Football AP Regular Season MVP in the 2026-27 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 49 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jordan Love win the MVP? · Jordan Love | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 2,600,921 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tyler Shough win the MVP? · Tyler Shough | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,566,898 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Caleb Williams win the MVP? · Caleb Williams | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2,393,997 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jared Goff win the MVP? · Jared Goff | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,371,400 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kenneth Walker win the MVP? · Kenneth Walker | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,190,137 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bryce Young win the MVP? · Bryce Young | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,065,718 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba win the MVP? · Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,037,431 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Joe Burrow win the MVP? · Joe Burrow | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 1,980,682 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Brock Purdy win the MVP? · Brock Purdy | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 1,921,452 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Drake Maye win the MVP? · Drake Maye | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,903,799 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jahmyr Gibbs win the MVP? · Jahmyr Gibbs | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,767,286 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Josh Allen win the MVP? · Josh Allen | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 1,738,570 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dak Prescott win the MVP? · Dak Prescott | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,700,490 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Patrick Mahomes win the MVP? · Patrick Mahomes | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,660,418 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trevor Lawrence win the MVP? · Trevor Lawrence | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 1,528,669 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will CJ Stroud win the MVP? · CJ Stroud | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,517,356 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bijan Robinson win the MVP? · Bijan Robinson | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,439,904 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kyler Murray win the MVP? · Kyler Murray | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,205,356 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lamar Jackson win the MVP? · Lamar Jackson | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,192,070 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Matthew Stafford win the MVP? · Matthew Stafford | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,110,170 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Justin Herbert win the MVP? · Justin Herbert | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 849,986 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bo Nix win the MVP? · Bo Nix | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 844,905 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jaxson Dart win the MVP? · Jaxson Dart | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 788,485 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jalen Hurts win the MVP? · Jalen Hurts | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 777,186 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Baker Mayfield win the MVP? · Baker Mayfield | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 334,177 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Daniel Jones win the MVP? · Daniel Jones | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 324,385 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Aaron Rodgers win the MVP? · Aaron Rodgers | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 273,472 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sam Darnold win the MVP? · Sam Darnold | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 265,232 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michael Penix Jr win the MVP? · Michael Penix Jr | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 253,942 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jayden Daniels win the MVP? · Jayden Daniels | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 203,484 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Christian McCaffrey win the MVP? · Christian McCaffrey | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 76,485 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Myles Garrett win the MVP? · Myles Garrett | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 71,491 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kirk Cousins win the MVP? · Kirk Cousins | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 53,618 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will CeeDee Lamb win the MVP? · CeeDee Lamb | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 52,589 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Saquon Barkley win the MVP? · Saquon Barkley | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 49,559 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will JJ McCarthy win the MVP? · JJ McCarthy | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 47,537 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Derrick Henry win the MVP? · Derrick Henry | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 42,555 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cam Ward win the MVP? · Cam Ward | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 41,335 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tie/Co-Winners win the MVP? · Tie/Co-Winners | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 36,816 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jonathan Taylor win the MVP? · Jonathan Taylor | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 30,750 | Feb 12, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 49 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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