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Next NFL Coach Out on Kalshi
If the head coach of Cincinnati Pro Football team leaves (or announces they will leave) before any other Pro Football head coach before Feb 15, 2027 and after issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 32 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dan Quinn be the next coach out in Pro Football? · Dan Quinn | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 30,786 | Feb 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Todd Bowles be the next coach out in Pro Football? · Todd Bowles | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 26,229 | Feb 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Nick Sirianni be the next coach out in Pro Football? · Nick Sirianni | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 24,441 | Feb 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Shane Steichen be the next coach out in Pro Football? · Shane Steichen | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 18,054 | Feb 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Aaron Glenn be the next coach out in Pro Football? · Aaron Glenn | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 16,071 | Feb 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Matt LaFleur be the next coach out in Pro Football? · Matt LaFleur | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 15,151 | Feb 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Jim Harbaugh be the next coach out in Pro Football? · Jim Harbaugh | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 13,357 | Feb 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Brian Schottenheimer be the next coach out in Pro Football? · Brian Schottenheimer | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 10,819 | Feb 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will DeMeco Ryans be the next coach out in Pro Football? · DeMeco Ryans | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,000 | Feb 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Zac Taylor be the next coach out in Pro Football? · Zac Taylor | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,538 | Feb 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Kellen Moore be the next coach out in Pro Football? · Kellen Moore | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,308 | Feb 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Kevin O'Connell be the next coach out in Pro Football? · Kevin O'Connell | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 3,781 | Feb 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will John Harbaugh be the next coach out in Pro Football? · John Harbaugh | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,337 | Feb 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Robert Saleh be the next coach out in Pro Football? · Robert Saleh | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,294 | Feb 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Dave Canales be the next coach out in Pro Football? · Dave Canales | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,519 | Feb 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Mike LaFleur be the next coach out in Pro Football? · Mike LaFleur | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,180 | Feb 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Mike Vrabel be the next coach out in Pro Football? · Mike Vrabel | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,123 | Feb 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Sean McVay be the next coach out in Pro Football? · Sean McVay | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,000 | Feb 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Jeff Hafley be the next coach out in Pro Football? · Jeff Hafley | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 737 | Feb 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Mike McCarthy be the next coach out in Pro Football? · Mike McCarthy | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 290 | Feb 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Dan Campbell be the next coach out in Pro Football? · Dan Campbell | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 145 | Feb 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Todd Monken be the next coach out in Pro Football? · Todd Monken | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 142 | Feb 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Kevin Stefanski be the next coach out in Pro Football? · Kevin Stefanski | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 93 | Feb 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Mike Macdonald be the next coach out in Pro Football? · Mike Macdonald | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 46 | Feb 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Sean Payton be the next coach out in Pro Football? · Sean Payton | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Liam Coen be the next coach out in Pro Football? · Liam Coen | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Kyle Shanahan be the next coach out in Pro Football? · Kyle Shanahan | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Klint Kubiak be the next coach out in Pro Football? · Klint Kubiak | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Jesse Minter be the next coach out in Pro Football? · Jesse Minter | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Joe Brady be the next coach out in Pro Football? · Joe Brady | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Ben Johnson be the next coach out in Pro Football? · Ben Johnson | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Andy Reid be the next coach out in Pro Football? · Andy Reid | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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