What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 1¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.47.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 1% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 1%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

Player Next Team on Kalshi

If Jalen Hurts' next team is the Washington Pro Football team before May 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 792 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

2% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.47	1.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Jonathan Taylor's next team before Dec 1, 2026: New York G · New York G	16¢	16%	1.0¢	—	33%	644,536	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Jonathan Taylor's next team before Dec 1, 2026: Indianapolis · Indianapolis	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	95%	590,517	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Jonathan Taylor's next team before Dec 1, 2026: Denver · Denver	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	495,343	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Jonathan Taylor's next team before Dec 1, 2026: Minnesota · Minnesota	14¢	14%	0.8¢	—	27%	477,538	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Jonathan Taylor's next team before Dec 1, 2026: Seattle · Seattle	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	428,286	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Jonathan Taylor's next team before Dec 1, 2026: New England · New England	16¢	16%	0.9¢	—	32%	387,009	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Jonathan Taylor's next team before Dec 1, 2026: Green Bay · Green Bay	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	354,315	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Jonathan Taylor's next team before Dec 1, 2026: Cincinnati · Cincinnati	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	352,498	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Jonathan Taylor's next team before Dec 1, 2026: Houston · Houston	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	144,488	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Jonathan Taylor's next team before Dec 1, 2026: San Francisco · San Francisco	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	117,152	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Vita Vea's next team before Dec 1, 2026: Tampa Bay · Tampa Bay	87¢	87%	0.8¢	—	26%	46,898	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Jonathan Taylor's next team before Dec 1, 2026: Chicago · Chicago	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	42,964	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Jonathan Taylor's next team before Dec 1, 2026: Dallas · Dallas	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	33,270	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Jonathan Taylor's next team before Dec 1, 2026: Washington · Washington	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	29,916	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Garrett Wilson's next team before Dec 1, 2026: New York J · New York J	88¢	88%	0.7¢	—	23%	20,336	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Jonathan Taylor's next team before Dec 1, 2026: Jacksonville · Jacksonville	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	18,771	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Garrett Wilson's next team before Dec 1, 2026: San Francisco · San Francisco	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	16,159	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Jonathan Taylor's next team before Dec 1, 2026: New Orleans · New Orleans	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	15,087	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Derrick Henry's Next Team Before Dec 1, 2026: Baltimore · Baltimore	90¢	90%	0.7¢	—	21%	13,947	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Garrett Wilson's next team before Dec 1, 2026: Kansas City · Kansas City	13¢	13%	0.8¢	—	26%	12,751	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Daniel Jones' next team before Dec 1, 2026: Minnesota · Minnesota	28¢	28%	1.4¢	—	56%	11,390	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Derrick Henry's Next Team Before Dec 1, 2026: New York G · New York G	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	11,164	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Jonathan Taylor's next team before Dec 1, 2026: Baltimore · Baltimore	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	10,124	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Vita Vea's next team before Dec 1, 2026: San Francisco · San Francisco	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	10,087	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Derrick Henry's Next Team Before Dec 1, 2026: Green Bay · Green Bay	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	9,275	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Breece Hall's next team before Dec 1, 2026: New York J · New York J	88¢	88%	0.8¢	—	25%	9,251	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Jonathan Taylor's next team before Dec 1, 2026: Cleveland · Cleveland	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	9,039	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Daniel Jones' next team before Dec 1, 2026: Indianapolis · Indianapolis	77¢	77%	1.2¢	—	46%	8,936	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Jonathan Taylor's next team before Dec 1, 2026: Arizona · Arizona	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	8,788	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Khalil Mack's next team before Dec 1, 2026: Chicago · Chicago	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	30%	8,786	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Jonathan Taylor's next team before Dec 1, 2026: Carolina · Carolina	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	8,609	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Garrett Wilson's next team before Dec 1, 2026: Pittsburgh · Pittsburgh	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	7,775	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Baker Mayfield's next team before Dec 1, 2026: Tampa Bay · Tampa Bay	97¢	97%	0.2¢	—	6%	6,869	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Vita Vea's next team before Dec 1, 2026: Los Angeles C · Los Angeles C	47¢	47%	1.7¢	—	94%	6,445	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Shedeur Sanders' next team before Dec 1, 2026: Cleveland · Cleveland	90¢	90%	0.7¢	—	21%	6,346	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Jonathan Taylor's next team before Dec 1, 2026: Kansas City · Kansas City	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	5,997	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Brian Thomas Jr.'s next team before Dec 1, 2026: Jacksonville · Jacksonville	55¢	55%	1.7¢	—	91%	5,900	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Breece Hall's next team before Dec 1, 2026: Minnesota · Minnesota	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	5,670	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Vita Vea's next team before Dec 1, 2026: Las Vegas · Las Vegas	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	24%	5,626	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Jonathan Taylor's next team before Dec 1, 2026: Philadelphia · Philadelphia	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	5,266	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 792 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.