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Pro Football Passing Yards on Kalshi
If Drake Maye records 400+ passing yards in the New England vs Detroit Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
37%
Median YES price across 29 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
74% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 37¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.21 | 38.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels: 200+ passing yards · Jayden Daniels: 200+ | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 5,114 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Jayden Daniels: 175+ passing yards · Jayden Daniels: 175+ | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 221 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Jayden Daniels: 225+ passing yards · Jayden Daniels: 225+ | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 181 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Jayden Daniels: 150+ passing yards · Jayden Daniels: 150+ | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 24 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Jayden Daniels: 125+ passing yards · Jayden Daniels: 125+ | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 15 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Jayden Daniels: 275+ passing yards · Jayden Daniels: 275+ | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 14 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Drake Maye: 275+ passing yards · Drake Maye: 275+ | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 10 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Drake Maye: 400+ passing yards · Drake Maye: 400+ | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Drake Maye: 375+ passing yards · Drake Maye: 375+ | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Drake Maye: 350+ passing yards · Drake Maye: 350+ | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Drake Maye: 325+ passing yards · Drake Maye: 325+ | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Drake Maye: 300+ passing yards · Drake Maye: 300+ | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Drake Maye: 250+ passing yards · Drake Maye: 250+ | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Drake Maye: 225+ passing yards · Drake Maye: 225+ | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Drake Maye: 200+ passing yards · Drake Maye: 200+ | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Drake Maye: 175+ passing yards · Drake Maye: 175+ | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Jared Goff: 400+ passing yards · Jared Goff: 400+ | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Jared Goff: 375+ passing yards · Jared Goff: 375+ | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Jared Goff: 350+ passing yards · Jared Goff: 350+ | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Jared Goff: 325+ passing yards · Jared Goff: 325+ | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Jared Goff: 300+ passing yards · Jared Goff: 300+ | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Jared Goff: 275+ passing yards · Jared Goff: 275+ | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Jared Goff: 250+ passing yards · Jared Goff: 250+ | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Jared Goff: 225+ passing yards · Jared Goff: 225+ | 73¢ | 73% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Jared Goff: 200+ passing yards · Jared Goff: 200+ | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Jared Goff: 175+ passing yards · Jared Goff: 175+ | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Jayden Daniels: 325+ passing yards · Jayden Daniels: 325+ | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Jayden Daniels: 300+ passing yards · Jayden Daniels: 300+ | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Jayden Daniels: 250+ passing yards · Jayden Daniels: 250+ | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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