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Receiving Yards Protected on Kalshi
If Theo Johnson records 40+ receiving yards in the Washington vs New York G Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
22%
Median YES price across 117 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
44% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $2.73 | 23.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers: 70+ receiving yards (Protected) · Malik Nabers: 70+ | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 257 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Isaiah Likely: 50+ receiving yards (Protected) · Isaiah Likely: 50+ | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 132 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Malik Nabers: 80+ receiving yards (Protected) · Malik Nabers: 80+ | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 117 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Malik Nabers: 160+ receiving yards (Protected) · Malik Nabers: 160+ | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 42 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Malik Nabers: 110+ receiving yards (Protected) · Malik Nabers: 110+ | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 15 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Isaiah Likely: 60+ receiving yards (Protected) · Isaiah Likely: 60+ | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 7 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Theo Johnson: 40+ receiving yards (Protected) · Theo Johnson: 40+ | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Theo Johnson: 30+ receiving yards (Protected) · Theo Johnson: 30+ | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Theo Johnson: 25+ receiving yards (Protected) · Theo Johnson: 25+ | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Theo Johnson: 20+ receiving yards (Protected) · Theo Johnson: 20+ | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Theo Johnson: 15+ receiving yards (Protected) · Theo Johnson: 15+ | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Theo Johnson: 10+ receiving yards (Protected) · Theo Johnson: 10+ | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Theo Johnson: 5+ receiving yards (Protected) · Theo Johnson: 5+ | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Devin Singletary: 40+ receiving yards (Protected) · Devin Singletary: 40+ | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Devin Singletary: 30+ receiving yards (Protected) · Devin Singletary: 30+ | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Devin Singletary: 25+ receiving yards (Protected) · Devin Singletary: 25+ | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Devin Singletary: 20+ receiving yards (Protected) · Devin Singletary: 20+ | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Devin Singletary: 15+ receiving yards (Protected) · Devin Singletary: 15+ | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Devin Singletary: 10+ receiving yards (Protected) · Devin Singletary: 10+ | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Van Jefferson: 60+ receiving yards (Protected) · Van Jefferson: 60+ | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Van Jefferson: 50+ receiving yards (Protected) · Van Jefferson: 50+ | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Van Jefferson: 40+ receiving yards (Protected) · Van Jefferson: 40+ | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Van Jefferson: 30+ receiving yards (Protected) · Van Jefferson: 30+ | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Van Jefferson: 25+ receiving yards (Protected) · Van Jefferson: 25+ | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Van Jefferson: 20+ receiving yards (Protected) · Van Jefferson: 20+ | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Van Jefferson: 15+ receiving yards (Protected) · Van Jefferson: 15+ | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Van Jefferson: 10+ receiving yards (Protected) · Van Jefferson: 10+ | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Austin Ekeler: 40+ receiving yards (Protected) · Austin Ekeler: 40+ | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Austin Ekeler: 30+ receiving yards (Protected) · Austin Ekeler: 30+ | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Austin Ekeler: 25+ receiving yards (Protected) · Austin Ekeler: 25+ | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Austin Ekeler: 20+ receiving yards (Protected) · Austin Ekeler: 20+ | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Austin Ekeler: 15+ receiving yards (Protected) · Austin Ekeler: 15+ | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Austin Ekeler: 10+ receiving yards (Protected) · Austin Ekeler: 10+ | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Antonio Williams: 120+ receiving yards (Protected) · Antonio Williams: 120+ | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Antonio Williams: 110+ receiving yards (Protected) · Antonio Williams: 110+ | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Antonio Williams: 100+ receiving yards (Protected) · Antonio Williams: 100+ | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Antonio Williams: 90+ receiving yards (Protected) · Antonio Williams: 90+ | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Antonio Williams: 80+ receiving yards (Protected) · Antonio Williams: 80+ | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Antonio Williams: 70+ receiving yards (Protected) · Antonio Williams: 70+ | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Antonio Williams: 60+ receiving yards (Protected) · Antonio Williams: 60+ | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 117 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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