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NFL Retirement on Kalshi
If Aaron Rodgers announces his retirement from the National Football League (NFL) before the 2029-30 NFL regular season start date, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bleacher Report, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, the Governing League, The Athletic, ESPN, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, AP, Reuters, The Washington Post, Bloomberg News, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 51¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.72 | 52.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kirk Cousins announce his retirement before the 2027-28 NFL season? · Before the 2027-28 season | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 1,541 | Sep 30, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Mike Evans announce his retirement before the 2028-29 NFL season? · Before the 2028-29 season | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 1,464 | Sep 30, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Mike Evans announce his retirement before the 2027-28 NFL season? · Before the 2027-28 season | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 1,293 | Sep 30, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Mike Evans announce his retirement before the 2029-30 NFL season? · Before the 2029-30 season | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 1,121 | Sep 30, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Kirk Cousins announce his retirement before the 2028-29 NFL season? · Before the 2028-29 season | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 517 | Sep 30, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Matthew Stafford announce his retirement before the 2027-28 NFL season? · Before the 2027-28 season | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 497 | Sep 30, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Kirk Cousins announce his retirement before the 2029-30 NFL season? · Before the 2029-30 season | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 471 | Sep 30, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Derrick Henry announce his retirement before the 2029-30 NFL season? · Before the 2029-30 season | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 277 | Sep 30, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Joe Flacco announce his retirement before the 2027-28 NFL season? · Before the 2027-28 season | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 232 | Sep 30, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Matthew Stafford announce his retirement before the 2028-29 NFL season? · Before the 2028-29 season | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 222 | Sep 30, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Derrick Henry announce his retirement before the 2027-28 NFL season? · Before the 2027-28 season | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 163 | Sep 30, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Matthew Stafford announce his retirement before the 2029-30 NFL season? · Before the 2029-30 season | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 123 | Sep 30, 03:59 UTC |
| Aaron Rodgers announces his retirement from the NFL before the 2027-28 season · Before the 2027-28 season | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 54 | Oct 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Derrick Henry announce his retirement before the 2028-29 NFL season? · Before the 2028-29 season | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 9 | Sep 30, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Joe Flacco announce his retirement before the 2028-29 NFL season? · Before the 2028-29 season | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 5 | Sep 30, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Davante Adams announce his retirement before the 2029-30 NFL season? · Before the 2029-30 season | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 2 | Sep 30, 03:59 UTC |
| Aaron Rodgers announces his retirement from the NFL before the 2029-30 season · Before the 2029-30 season | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Oct 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Aaron Rodgers announces his retirement from the NFL before the 2028-29 season · Before the 2028-29 season | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Oct 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Davante Adams announce his retirement before the 2028-29 NFL season? · Before the 2028-29 season | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Sep 30, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Davante Adams announce his retirement before the 2027-28 NFL season? · Before the 2027-28 season | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Sep 30, 03:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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