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Passing Touchdowns on Kalshi
If Patrick Mahomes records 40+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
42%
Median YES price across 113 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
85% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 42¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.03 | 43.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Joe Burrow record 40+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Joe Burrow | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 6,036 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Drake Maye record 25+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Drake Maye | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 2,366 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dak Prescott record 40+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Dak Prescott | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 1,891 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Baker Mayfield record 40+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Baker Mayfield | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 1,777 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Drake Maye record 40+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Drake Maye | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 1,698 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jared Goff record 40+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Jared Goff | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 1,596 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Justin Herbert record 40+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Justin Herbert | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 1,576 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lamar Jackson record 30+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Lamar Jackson | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,320 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jordan Love record 30+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Jordan Love | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 1,308 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Aaron Rodgers record 25+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Aaron Rodgers | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 1,203 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Aaron Rodgers record 20+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Aaron Rodgers | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 1,161 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jalen Hurts record 20+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Jalen Hurts | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 1,121 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Patrick Mahomes record 40+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Patrick Mahomes | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 1,103 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Caleb Williams record 25+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Caleb Williams | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 1,043 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Joe Burrow record 25+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Joe Burrow | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 728 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Joe Burrow record 30+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Joe Burrow | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 714 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bryce Young record 30+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Bryce Young | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 707 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cam Ward record 20+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Cam Ward | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 687 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Josh Allen record 30+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Josh Allen | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 681 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cam Ward record 25+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Cam Ward | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 589 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jordan Love record 20+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Jordan Love | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 525 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tyler Shough record 20+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Tyler Shough | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 512 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dak Prescott record 30+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Dak Prescott | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 477 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Brock Purdy record 40+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Brock Purdy | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 476 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jordan Love record 25+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Jordan Love | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 455 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will C.J. Stroud record 20+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · C.J. Stroud | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 422 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Matthew Stafford record 30+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Matthew Stafford | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 419 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dak Prescott record 20+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Dak Prescott | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 414 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Drake Maye record 30+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Drake Maye | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 395 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trevor Lawrence record 25+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Trevor Lawrence | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 393 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Matthew Stafford record 25+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Matthew Stafford | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 390 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Brock Purdy record 25+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Brock Purdy | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 388 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sam Darnold record 30+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Sam Darnold | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 362 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trevor Lawrence record 20+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Trevor Lawrence | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 360 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Patrick Mahomes record 30+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Patrick Mahomes | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 355 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jared Goff record 25+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Jared Goff | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 354 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jacoby Brissett record 20+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Jacoby Brissett | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 347 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jared Goff record 30+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Jared Goff | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 346 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Brock Purdy record 30+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Brock Purdy | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 339 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Josh Allen record 25+ passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Josh Allen | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 331 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 113 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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