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Receiving Touchdowns on Kalshi
If Zay Flowers records 14+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
42%
Median YES price across 174 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
83% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 41¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.07 | 42.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will A.J. Brown record 8+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · A.J. Brown | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 5,970 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will A.J. Brown record 10+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · A.J. Brown | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 4,873 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Colston Loveland record 12+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Colston Loveland | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 3,749 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Garrett Wilson record 6+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Garrett Wilson | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 3,108 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Brock Bowers record 10+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Brock Bowers | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 2,917 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Colston Loveland record 8+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Colston Loveland | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 2,753 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Justin Jefferson record 10+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Justin Jefferson | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 2,403 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Marvin Harrison Jr. record 10+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Marvin Harrison Jr. | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 2,232 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mike Evans record 10+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Mike Evans | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 2,143 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Colston Loveland record 6+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Colston Loveland | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 1,843 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trey McBride record 10+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Trey McBride | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 1,840 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chris Olave record 10+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Chris Olave | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 1,747 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Garrett Wilson record 8+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Garrett Wilson | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 1,679 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will DeVonta Smith record 8+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · DeVonta Smith | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 1,653 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Zay Flowers record 6+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Zay Flowers | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 1,650 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Luther Burden III record 6+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Luther Burden III | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 1,646 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Isaiah Likely record 8+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Isaiah Likely | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 1,639 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will DeVonta Smith record 10+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · DeVonta Smith | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 1,567 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Colston Loveland record 10+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Colston Loveland | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 1,531 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mike Evans record 8+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Mike Evans | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 1,476 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trey McBride record 12+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Trey McBride | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 1,442 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chris Olave record 8+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Chris Olave | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 1,343 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ladd McConkey record 8+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Ladd McConkey | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 1,308 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will A.J. Brown record 12+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · A.J. Brown | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 1,304 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ja'Marr Chase record 10+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Ja'Marr Chase | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 1,262 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Amon-Ra St. Brown record 10+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Amon-Ra St. Brown | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 1,261 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Amon-Ra St. Brown record 6+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Amon-Ra St. Brown | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 1,258 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tee Higgins record 10+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Tee Higgins | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 1,148 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will CeeDee Lamb record 8+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · CeeDee Lamb | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 1,137 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba record 10+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 1,108 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Garrett Wilson record 10+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Garrett Wilson | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 1,106 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Brock Bowers record 8+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Brock Bowers | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 1,093 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Davante Adams record 10+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Davante Adams | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 1,063 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Zay Flowers record 10+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Zay Flowers | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 1,051 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Justin Jefferson record 8+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Justin Jefferson | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 1,010 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Justin Jefferson record 12+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Justin Jefferson | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 994 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jaylen Waddle record 8+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Jaylen Waddle | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 946 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will DeVonta Smith record 6+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · DeVonta Smith | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 924 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Amon-Ra St. Brown record 12+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Amon-Ra St. Brown | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 852 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nico Collins record 10+ receiving touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Nico Collins | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 846 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 174 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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