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Rushing Touchdowns on Kalshi
If Saquon Barkley records 16+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 215 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
97% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 48¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.82 | 49.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashton Jeanty record 6+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Ashton Jeanty | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 10,293 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will De'Von Achane record 6+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · De'Von Achane | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 4,561 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Saquon Barkley record 6+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Saquon Barkley | 71¢ | 71% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 3,244 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ashton Jeanty record 8+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Ashton Jeanty | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 3,223 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chase Brown record 10+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Chase Brown | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 3,141 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chase Brown record 6+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Chase Brown | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 2,870 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cam Skattebo record 10+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Cam Skattebo | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 2,666 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Omarion Hampton record 8+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Omarion Hampton | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 2,438 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Omarion Hampton record 12+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Omarion Hampton | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2,313 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jaxson Dart record 10+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Jaxson Dart | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 2,174 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Omarion Hampton record 16+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Omarion Hampton | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 2,155 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Blake Corum record 6+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Blake Corum | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 1,857 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chase Brown record 8+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Chase Brown | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 1,810 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will David Montgomery record 10+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · David Montgomery | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 1,794 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Quinshon Judkins record 10+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Quinshon Judkins | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 1,628 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will De'Von Achane record 16+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · De'Von Achane | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 1,609 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ashton Jeanty record 10+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Ashton Jeanty | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 1,574 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Javonte Williams record 16+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Javonte Williams | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 1,523 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kenneth Walker III record 10+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Kenneth Walker III | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 1,521 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jahmyr Gibbs record 12+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Jahmyr Gibbs | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 1,513 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will David Montgomery record 12+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · David Montgomery | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 1,462 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kyren Williams record 10+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Kyren Williams | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 1,419 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will David Montgomery record 8+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · David Montgomery | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 1,406 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will De'Von Achane record 12+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · De'Von Achane | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 1,400 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Josh Allen record 12+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Josh Allen | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 1,333 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jonathan Taylor record 16+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Jonathan Taylor | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 1,326 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Omarion Hampton record 14+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Omarion Hampton | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,309 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jahmyr Gibbs record 14+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Jahmyr Gibbs | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 1,308 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will De'Von Achane record 8+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · De'Von Achane | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,231 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Saquon Barkley record 8+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Saquon Barkley | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 1,220 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jaxson Dart record 6+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Jaxson Dart | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,214 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kenneth Walker III record 12+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Kenneth Walker III | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 1,155 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will David Montgomery record 14+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · David Montgomery | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 1,146 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Omarion Hampton record 10+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Omarion Hampton | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 1,123 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kyren Williams record 12+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Kyren Williams | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 1,070 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jeremiyah Love record 10+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Jeremiyah Love | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,017 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bijan Robinson record 10+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Bijan Robinson | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 1,012 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jaxson Dart record 8+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Jaxson Dart | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 998 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jonathan Taylor record 10+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Jonathan Taylor | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 968 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Derrick Henry record 10+ rushing touchdowns during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Derrick Henry | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 956 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 215 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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