Markets › Kalshi › Sports
Will single season record be broken? on Kalshi
If any Pro Football player breaks the individual regular season rookie sack record in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the single season sack record be broken? · Over 23 sacks | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 1,034 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the single season receiving yards record be broken? · Over 1964 receiving yards | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 781 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the single season rushing yards record be broken? · Over 2105 rushing yards | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 605 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the single season passing yards record be broken? · Over 5477 passing yards | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 233 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the single season receptions record be broken? · Over 149 receptions | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 208 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the single season rookie sack record be broken? · Over 14.5 sacks | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.