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Pro Football Touchdowns Protected on Kalshi
If Jaden Bradley records 1+ touchdowns in the Washington vs New York G Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
6%
Median YES price across 33 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
11% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6¢ (now) | 0.4¢ | $3.29 | 6.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chig Okonkwo: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · Chig Okonkwo: 1+ | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 1,298 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Malik Nabers: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · Malik Nabers: 1+ | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 260 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Isaiah Likely: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · Isaiah Likely: 1+ | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 232 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Stefon Diggs: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · Stefon Diggs: 1+ | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 216 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Jayden Daniels: 2+ touchdowns (Protected) · Jayden Daniels: 2+ | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 70 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Stefon Diggs: 2+ touchdowns (Protected) · Stefon Diggs: 2+ | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 56 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Jayden Daniels: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · Jayden Daniels: 1+ | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 51 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Isaiah Likely: 2+ touchdowns (Protected) · Isaiah Likely: 2+ | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 46 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Malik Nabers: 2+ touchdowns (Protected) · Malik Nabers: 2+ | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 40 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Rachaad White: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · Rachaad White: 1+ | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 39 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Luke McCaffrey: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · Luke McCaffrey: 1+ | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 27 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Devin Singletary: 2+ touchdowns (Protected) · Devin Singletary: 2+ | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 25 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Gregory Desrosiers: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · Gregory Desrosiers: 1+ | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 15 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Malachi Fields: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · Malachi Fields: 1+ | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 11 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Jaden Bradley: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · Jaden Bradley: 1+ | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Luke McCaffrey: 2+ touchdowns (Protected) · Luke McCaffrey: 2+ | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Theo Johnson: 2+ touchdowns (Protected) · Theo Johnson: 2+ | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Antonio Williams: 2+ touchdowns (Protected) · Antonio Williams: 2+ | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Antonio Williams: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · Antonio Williams: 1+ | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Rachaad White: 2+ touchdowns (Protected) · Rachaad White: 2+ | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Chig Okonkwo: 2+ touchdowns (Protected) · Chig Okonkwo: 2+ | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Van Jefferson: 2+ touchdowns (Protected) · Van Jefferson: 2+ | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Van Jefferson: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · Van Jefferson: 1+ | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Austin Ekeler: 2+ touchdowns (Protected) · Austin Ekeler: 2+ | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Austin Ekeler: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · Austin Ekeler: 1+ | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| John Bates: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · John Bates: 1+ | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Devin Singletary: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · Devin Singletary: 1+ | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Darnell Mooney: 2+ touchdowns (Protected) · Darnell Mooney: 2+ | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Darnell Mooney: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · Darnell Mooney: 1+ | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Theo Johnson: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · Theo Johnson: 1+ | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Malachi Fields: 2+ touchdowns (Protected) · Malachi Fields: 2+ | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| WAS Commanders D/ST: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · WAS Commanders D/ST: 1+ | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| NY Giants D/ST: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · NY Giants D/ST: 1+ | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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