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Pro Football Win Margin on Kalshi
If Washington has a positive point differential of between 7 and 14 points against New York G in the full game (including overtime) of the Washington vs New York G Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
15%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
29% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15¢ (now) | 0.9¢ | $2.98 | 15.9% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Washington win by 7 to 14 points? · Washington by 7 to 14 | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 1,641 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Will Washington win by at least 15 points? · Washington by 15 or more | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 1,128 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Will New York G win by 1 to 6 points? · New York G by 1 to 6 | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 424 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Will New York G win by at least 15 points? · New York G by 15 or more | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 386 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Will Washington vs New York G end in a tie? · Tie | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 136 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Will New York G win by 7 to 14 points? · New York G by 7 to 14 | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 49 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Will Washington win by 1 to 6 points? · Washington by 1 to 6 | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 40 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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