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NHL 1st Period Winner on Kalshi
If neither team wins the 1st period of the Carolina vs Seattle NHL game originally scheduled for Nov 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, NHL.
Market says (typical open contract)
32%
Median YES price across 42 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
65% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 33¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $2.34 | 34.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Jersey wins the 1st period · New Jersey | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 144 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Minnesota wins the 1st period · Minnesota | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 107 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| 1st period tie · Tie | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 68 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| 1st period tie · Tie | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 55 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| 1st period tie · Tie | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 25 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| 1st period tie · Tie | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 18 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Colorado wins the 1st period · Colorado | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 17 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Nashville wins the 1st period · Nashville | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 14 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia wins the 1st period · Philadelphia | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 5 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| 1st period tie · Tie | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 0 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Seattle wins the 1st period · Seattle | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Carolina wins the 1st period · Carolina | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 0 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
| 1st period tie · Tie | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| Nashville wins the 1st period · Nashville | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| Anaheim wins the 1st period · Anaheim | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| Vegas wins the 1st period · Vegas | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:30 UTC |
| Utah wins the 1st period · Utah | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:30 UTC |
| 1st period tie · Tie | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:30 UTC |
| 1st period tie · Tie | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| San Jose wins the 1st period · San Jose | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| Pittsburgh wins the 1st period · Pittsburgh | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| 1st period tie · Tie | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Edmonton wins the 1st period · Edmonton | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| 1st period tie · Tie | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Tampa Bay wins the 1st period · Tampa Bay | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Buffalo wins the 1st period · Buffalo | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| 1st period tie · Tie | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:30 UTC |
| New York R wins the 1st period · New York R | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:30 UTC |
| Calgary wins the 1st period · Calgary | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:30 UTC |
| 1st period tie · Tie | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Los Angeles wins the 1st period · Los Angeles | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 1st period tie · Tie | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| St. Louis wins the 1st period · St. Louis | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Detroit wins the 1st period · Detroit | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Winnipeg wins the 1st period · Winnipeg | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| 1st period tie · Tie | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Florida wins the 1st period · Florida | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Columbus wins the 1st period · Columbus | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Washington wins the 1st period · Washington | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Ottawa wins the 1st period · Ottawa | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 42 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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