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1st Period Spread on Kalshi
If Nashville wins by more than 1.5 goals in the 1st period of the Nashville vs Anaheim NHL game originally scheduled for Nov 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: NHL, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
14%
Median YES price across 26 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
27% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14¢ (now) | 0.8¢ | $3.01 | 14.8% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota wins 1st Period by over 1.5 goals · Minnesota wins by over 1.5 goals | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 99 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| New Jersey wins 1st Period by over 1.5 goals · New Jersey wins by over 1.5 goals | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 23 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Colorado wins 1st Period by over 1.5 goals · Colorado wins by over 1.5 goals | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 22 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Nashville wins 1st Period by over 1.5 goals · Nashville wins by over 1.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| Anaheim wins 1st Period by over 1.5 goals · Anaheim wins by over 1.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| Vegas wins 1st Period by over 1.5 goals · Vegas wins by over 1.5 goals | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:30 UTC |
| Utah wins 1st Period by over 1.5 goals · Utah wins by over 1.5 goals | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:30 UTC |
| San Jose wins 1st Period by over 1.5 goals · San Jose wins by over 1.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| Pittsburgh wins 1st Period by over 1.5 goals · Pittsburgh wins by over 1.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia wins 1st Period by over 1.5 goals · Philadelphia wins by over 1.5 goals | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Edmonton wins 1st Period by over 1.5 goals · Edmonton wins by over 1.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Tampa Bay wins 1st Period by over 1.5 goals · Tampa Bay wins by over 1.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Buffalo wins 1st Period by over 1.5 goals · Buffalo wins by over 1.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| New York R wins 1st Period by over 1.5 goals · New York R wins by over 1.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:30 UTC |
| Calgary wins 1st Period by over 1.5 goals · Calgary wins by over 1.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:30 UTC |
| Nashville wins 1st Period by over 1.5 goals · Nashville wins by over 1.5 goals | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Los Angeles wins 1st Period by over 1.5 goals · Los Angeles wins by over 1.5 goals | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| St. Louis wins 1st Period by over 1.5 goals · St. Louis wins by over 1.5 goals | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Detroit wins 1st Period by over 1.5 goals · Detroit wins by over 1.5 goals | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Winnipeg wins 1st Period by over 1.5 goals · Winnipeg wins by over 1.5 goals | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Florida wins 1st Period by over 1.5 goals · Florida wins by over 1.5 goals | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Columbus wins 1st Period by over 1.5 goals · Columbus wins by over 1.5 goals | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Washington wins 1st Period by over 1.5 goals · Washington wins by over 1.5 goals | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Ottawa wins 1st Period by over 1.5 goals · Ottawa wins by over 1.5 goals | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Montreal wins 1st Period by over 1.5 goals · Montreal wins by over 1.5 goals | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Toronto wins 1st Period by over 1.5 goals · Toronto wins by over 1.5 goals | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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