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3rd Period Total on Kalshi
If the teams collectively score more than 2.5 goals in the 3rd Period of the Carolina vs Seattle NHL game originally scheduled for Nov 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: NHL, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
66%
Median YES price across 42 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
69% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 66¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $1.19 | 67.6% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3rd Period: Over 2.5 goals scored · Over 2.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 1.5 goals scored · Over 1.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 0.5 goals scored · Over 0.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 2.5 goals scored · Over 2.5 goals | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 1.5 goals scored · Over 1.5 goals | 67¢ | 67% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 0.5 goals scored · Over 0.5 goals | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 2.5 goals scored · Over 2.5 goals | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:30 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 1.5 goals scored · Over 1.5 goals | 65¢ | 65% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:30 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 0.5 goals scored · Over 0.5 goals | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:30 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 2.5 goals scored · Over 2.5 goals | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 1.5 goals scored · Over 1.5 goals | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 0.5 goals scored · Over 0.5 goals | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 2.5 goals scored · Over 2.5 goals | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 1.5 goals scored · Over 1.5 goals | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 0.5 goals scored · Over 0.5 goals | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 2.5 goals scored · Over 2.5 goals | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 1.5 goals scored · Over 1.5 goals | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 0.5 goals scored · Over 0.5 goals | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 2.5 goals scored · Over 2.5 goals | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:30 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 1.5 goals scored · Over 1.5 goals | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:30 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 0.5 goals scored · Over 0.5 goals | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:30 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 2.5 goals scored · Over 2.5 goals | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 1.5 goals scored · Over 1.5 goals | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 0.5 goals scored · Over 0.5 goals | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 2.5 goals scored · Over 2.5 goals | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 1.5 goals scored · Over 1.5 goals | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 0.5 goals scored · Over 0.5 goals | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 2.5 goals scored · Over 2.5 goals | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 1.5 goals scored · Over 1.5 goals | 67¢ | 67% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 0.5 goals scored · Over 0.5 goals | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 2.5 goals scored · Over 2.5 goals | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 1.5 goals scored · Over 1.5 goals | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 0.5 goals scored · Over 0.5 goals | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 2.5 goals scored · Over 2.5 goals | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 1.5 goals scored · Over 1.5 goals | 67¢ | 67% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 0.5 goals scored · Over 0.5 goals | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 2.5 goals scored · Over 2.5 goals | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 1.5 goals scored · Over 1.5 goals | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 0.5 goals scored · Over 0.5 goals | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| 3rd Period: Over 2.5 goals scored · Over 2.5 goals | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 42 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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