Markets › Kalshi › Sports
NHL First Goal on Kalshi
If Michael McCarron scores the 1st goal in the Minnesota vs Montreal NHL game originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: NHL, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 237 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
4% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.43 | 2.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Boldy: First Goalscorer · Matt Boldy | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 1,528 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Artemi Panarin: First Goalscorer · Artemi Panarin | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 810 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Mathieu Olivier: First Goalscorer · Mathieu Olivier | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 593 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Artturi Lehkonen: First Goalscorer · Artturi Lehkonen | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 468 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Danila Yurov: First Goalscorer · Danila Yurov | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 406 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Kirill Kaprizov: First Goalscorer · Kirill Kaprizov | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 350 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Quinn Hughes: First Goalscorer · Quinn Hughes | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 333 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Max Shabanov: First Goalscorer · Max Shabanov | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 321 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Joel Eriksson Ek: First Goalscorer · Joel Eriksson Ek | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 235 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Timo Meier: First Goalscorer · Timo Meier | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 234 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Olli Maatta: First Goalscorer · Olli Maatta | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 189 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Cole Caufield: First Goalscorer · Cole Caufield | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 164 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Lucas Raymond: First Goalscorer · Lucas Raymond | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 137 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Brock Nelson: First Goalscorer · Brock Nelson | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 93 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Jack Drury: First Goalscorer · Jack Drury | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 93 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Phillip Danault: First Goalscorer · Phillip Danault | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 93 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Kirby Dach: First Goalscorer · Kirby Dach | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 93 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Jack Hughes: First Goalscorer · Jack Hughes | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 74 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Zachary Bolduc: First Goalscorer · Zachary Bolduc | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 70 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Declan Chisholm: First Goalscorer · Declan Chisholm | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 70 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Auston Matthews: First Goalscorer · Auston Matthews | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 58 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Tom Wilson: First Goalscorer · Tom Wilson | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 56 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Arseny Gritsyuk: First Goalscorer · Arseny Gritsyuk | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 56 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Jayden Struble: First Goalscorer · Jayden Struble | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 50 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Brian Dumoulin: First Goalscorer · Brian Dumoulin | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 50 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Justin Barron: First Goalscorer · Justin Barron | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 50 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Alex Newhook: First Goalscorer · Alex Newhook | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 46 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Martin Fehervary: First Goalscorer · Martin Fehervary | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 35 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Nick Suzuki: First Goalscorer · Nick Suzuki | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 31 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Claude Giroux: First Goalscorer · Claude Giroux | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 25 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Gustav Forsling: First Goalscorer · Gustav Forsling | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 25 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Matt Roy: First Goalscorer · Matt Roy | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 25 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Troy Stecher: First Goalscorer · Troy Stecher | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 25 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Jake McCabe: First Goalscorer · Jake McCabe | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 25 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Tyrel Bauer: First Goalscorer · Tyrel Bauer | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 22 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Yakov Trenin: First Goalscorer · Yakov Trenin | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 21 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Nick Perbix: First Goalscorer · Nick Perbix | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 20 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Chris Tanev: First Goalscorer · Chris Tanev | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 20 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Adam Wilsby: First Goalscorer · Adam Wilsby | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 15 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Mikey Anderson: First Goalscorer · Mikey Anderson | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 13 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 237 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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