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NHL Game on Kalshi
If Vancouver wins the Vancouver vs Utah NHL game originally scheduled for Nov 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: NHL, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 94 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville wins · Nashville | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 185,850 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Washington wins · Washington | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 38,113 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Colorado wins · Colorado | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 37,775 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| New Jersey wins · New Jersey | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 27,967 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Ottawa wins · Ottawa | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 20,798 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Minnesota wins · Minnesota | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 20,249 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Toronto wins · Toronto | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 19,247 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Florida wins · Florida | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 15,828 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Columbus wins · Columbus | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 14,855 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Los Angeles wins · Los Angeles | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 13,682 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Winnipeg wins · Winnipeg | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 11,536 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Detroit wins · Detroit | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 9,725 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| St. Louis wins · St. Louis | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 7,798 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Montreal wins · Montreal | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 4,628 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Columbus wins · Columbus | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 4,572 | Nov 15, 00:00 UTC |
| Carolina wins · Carolina | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 2,787 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Edmonton wins · Edmonton | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 2,660 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| San Jose wins · San Jose | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 2,545 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| Dallas wins · Dallas | 67¢ | 67% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 2,314 | Nov 15, 01:00 UTC |
| Los Angeles wins · Los Angeles | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 2,009 | Nov 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Colorado wins · Colorado | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 1,878 | Nov 15, 00:00 UTC |
| Boston wins · Boston | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 1,780 | Nov 15, 00:00 UTC |
| New York R wins · New York R | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 1,260 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Anaheim wins · Anaheim | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 1,039 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| Tampa Bay wins · Tampa Bay | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 873 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Vegas wins · Vegas | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 863 | Nov 14, 02:30 UTC |
| Seattle wins · Seattle | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 811 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Buffalo wins · Buffalo | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 722 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Nashville wins · Nashville | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 554 | Nov 16, 03:00 UTC |
| Minnesota wins · Minnesota | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 532 | Nov 15, 00:00 UTC |
| Utah wins · Utah | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 493 | Nov 14, 02:30 UTC |
| Buffalo wins · Buffalo | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 481 | Nov 15, 01:00 UTC |
| Ottawa wins · Ottawa | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 414 | Nov 15, 00:00 UTC |
| Utah wins · Utah | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 383 | Nov 15, 02:00 UTC |
| New Jersey wins · New Jersey | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 345 | Nov 15, 00:00 UTC |
| Pittsburgh wins · Pittsburgh | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 327 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| Montreal wins · Montreal | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 299 | Nov 15, 00:00 UTC |
| New Jersey wins · New Jersey | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 278 | Nov 17, 00:00 UTC |
| Boston wins · Boston | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 261 | Nov 17, 00:00 UTC |
| New York R wins · New York R | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 228 | Nov 14, 00:30 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 94 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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