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Playoff Qualifier on Kalshi
If the Washington Capitals qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: NHL, ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
46%
Median YES price across 32 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
93% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 46¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.89 | 47.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the New York Rangers qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season? · New York Rangers | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 21,337 | Apr 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the San Jose Sharks qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season? · San Jose Sharks | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 18,891 | Apr 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Chicago Blackhawks qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season? · Chicago Blackhawks | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 12,440 | Apr 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Toronto Maple Leafs qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season? · Toronto Maple Leafs | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 11,625 | Apr 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Boston Bruins qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season? · Boston Bruins | 74¢ | 74% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 10,728 | Apr 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the New Jersey Devils qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season? · New Jersey Devils | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 10,277 | Apr 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Montréal Canadiens qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season? · Montréal Canadiens | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 8,168 | Apr 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Buffalo Sabres qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season? · Buffalo Sabres | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 6,199 | Apr 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the New York Islanders qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season? · New York Islanders | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 5,872 | Apr 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Columbus Blue Jackets qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season? · Columbus Blue Jackets | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 4,662 | Apr 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Pittsburgh Penguins qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season? · Pittsburgh Penguins | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 4,459 | Apr 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Philadelphia Flyers qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season? · Philadelphia Flyers | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 4,141 | Apr 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Los Angeles Kings qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season? · Los Angeles Kings | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 4,085 | Apr 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Ottawa Senators qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season? · Ottawa Senators | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 3,972 | Apr 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Seattle Kraken qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season? · Seattle Kraken | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 3,654 | Apr 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Anaheim Ducks qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season? · Anaheim Ducks | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 3,446 | Apr 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the St. Louis Blues qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season? · St. Louis Blues | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 2,948 | Apr 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Calgary Flames qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season? · Calgary Flames | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 2,913 | Apr 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Washington Capitals qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season? · Washington Capitals | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 2,440 | Apr 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Utah Mammoth qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season? · Utah Mammoth | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 2,198 | Apr 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Tampa Bay Lightning qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season? · Tampa Bay Lightning | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 2,084 | Apr 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Florida Panthers qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season? · Florida Panthers | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 1,920 | Apr 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Colorado Avalanche qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season? · Colorado Avalanche | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 1,545 | Apr 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Nashville Predators qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season? · Nashville Predators | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 1,403 | Apr 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Detroit Red Wings qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season? · Detroit Red Wings | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 1,145 | Apr 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Minnesota Wild qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season? · Minnesota Wild | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 917 | Apr 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Edmonton Oilers qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season? · Edmonton Oilers | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 819 | Apr 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Dallas Stars qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season? · Dallas Stars | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 571 | Apr 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Vancouver Canucks qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season? · Vancouver Canucks | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 514 | Apr 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season? · Winnipeg Jets | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 459 | Apr 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Vegas Golden Knights qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season? · Vegas Golden Knights | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 285 | Apr 25, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Carolina Hurricanes qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season? · Carolina Hurricanes | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 147 | Apr 25, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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