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Goaltender Saves on Kalshi
If Jake Allen records 26+ saves in the New Jersey vs Winnipeg NHL game originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: NHL.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
95% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 47¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.86 | 48.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Fowler: 28+ saves · Jacob Fowler: 28+ | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 58 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Sergei Bobrovsky: 29+ saves · Sergei Bobrovsky: 29+ | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 50 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Jake Allen: 26+ saves · Jake Allen: 26+ | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 49 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Samuel Ersson: 24+ saves · Samuel Ersson: 24+ | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 19 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Joel Hofer: 25+ saves · Joel Hofer: 25+ | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Cam Talbot: 25+ saves · Cam Talbot: 25+ | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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