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New home sales in time period on Kalshi
If US new home sales (New Residential Sales) for October 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, SAAR, reported in thousands of homes) is above 740,000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation, Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.
Market says (typical open contract)
57%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
86% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 57¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.51 | 58.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US new home sales for October 2026 be above 640,000? · Above 640,000 | 69¢ | 69% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 6,838 | Nov 25, 14:59 UTC |
| Will US new home sales for October 2026 be above 660,000? · Above 660,000 | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 1,664 | Nov 25, 14:59 UTC |
| Will US new home sales for October 2026 be above 680,000? · Above 680,000 | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 1,391 | Nov 25, 14:59 UTC |
| Will US new home sales for October 2026 be above 720,000? · Above 720,000 | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 153 | Nov 25, 14:59 UTC |
| Will US new home sales for October 2026 be above 740,000? · Above 740,000 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 52 | Nov 25, 14:59 UTC |
| Will US new home sales for October 2026 be above 600,000? · Above 600,000 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 19 | Nov 25, 14:59 UTC |
| Will US new home sales for October 2026 be above 700,000? · Above 700,000 | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 0 | Nov 25, 14:59 UTC |
| Will US new home sales for October 2026 be above 620,000? · Above 620,000 | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Nov 25, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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