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National League Game on Kalshi
If ZSC Lions wins the ZSC Lions vs EHC Biel professional Switzerland National League hockey game originally scheduled for Nov 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Flashscore, Sofascore.
Market says (typical open contract)
56%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
87% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 56¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.54 | 57.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZSC Lions wins · ZSC Lions | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Nov 14, 19:00 UTC |
| EHC Biel wins · EHC Biel | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Nov 14, 19:00 UTC |
| HC Ambri-Piotta wins · HC Ambri-Piotta | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 0 | Nov 13, 18:45 UTC |
| EV Zug wins · EV Zug | 67¢ | 67% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 13, 18:45 UTC |
| SC Bern wins · SC Bern | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 13, 18:45 UTC |
| HC Lugano wins · HC Lugano | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 0 | Nov 13, 18:45 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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