Markets › Kalshi › Financials
10Y UST on Kalshi
If the 10Y US Treasury Yield is above 5.99% on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: U.S. Department of the Treasury.
Market says (typical open contract)
24%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
48% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $2.66 | 25.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.74 on Dec 31, 2026? · 4.75% or above | 71¢ | 71% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 12,687 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.99 on Dec 31, 2026? · 5% or above | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 12,474 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.14 on Dec 31, 2026? · 5.15% or above | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 12,417 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.09 on Dec 31, 2026? · 5.1% or above | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 12,257 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.49 on Dec 31, 2026? · 5.5% or above | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 6,173 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.24 on Dec 31, 2026? · 5.25% or above | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 5,513 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.99 on Dec 31, 2026? · 6% or above | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,675 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.74 on Dec 31, 2026? · 5.75% or above | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 861 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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