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Which states will join the National Popular Vote Compact? on Kalshi
If legislation joining the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is enacted in Wisconsin before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: each state's official government websites, the Associated Press, Reuters.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 51¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.72 | 52.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Arizona join the National Popular Vote Compact before the 2028 election? · Arizona | 69¢ | 69% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 4,611 | Nov 07, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Wisconsin join the National Popular Vote Compact before the 2028 election? · Wisconsin | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 3,260 | Nov 07, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Michigan join the National Popular Vote Compact before the 2028 election? · Michigan | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 2,432 | Nov 07, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Nevada join the National Popular Vote Compact before the 2028 election? · Nevada | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 2,334 | Nov 07, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Pennsylvania join the National Popular Vote Compact before the 2028 election? · Pennsylvania | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 138 | Nov 07, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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