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Who will win the 2nd-most seats in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly? on Kalshi
If One Nation finishes in 2nd place in the 2027 New South Wales state election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: NSW Electoral Commission.
Market says (typical open contract)
20%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
41% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $2.77 | 22.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the NSW Liberal Party finish 2nd in the 2027 New South Wales state election? · Liberal | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 211 | Mar 12, 14:00 UTC |
| Will One Nation finish 2nd in the 2027 New South Wales state election? · One Nation | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 0 | Mar 12, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the NSW National Party finish 2nd in the 2027 New South Wales state election? · National | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Mar 12, 14:00 UTC |
| Will NSW Labor finish 2nd in the 2027 New South Wales state election? · Labor | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Mar 12, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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