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Nvidia KPI on Kalshi
If NVIDIA Corporation reports Above 40000 total employees in fiscal 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA Corporation report above 52000 total employees in 2027? · Above 52000 | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 11,064 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will NVIDIA Corporation report above 46000 total employees in 2027? · Above 46000 | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 7,147 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will NVIDIA Corporation report above 50000 total employees in 2027? · Above 50000 | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 7,026 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will NVIDIA Corporation report above 48000 total employees in 2027? · Above 48000 | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 4,347 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will NVIDIA Corporation report above 54000 total employees in 2027? · Above 54000 | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 3,576 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will NVIDIA Corporation report above 56000 total employees in 2027? · Above 56000 | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 1,073 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will NVIDIA Corporation report Above 40000 total employees in fiscal 2027? · Above 40000 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 104 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will NVIDIA Corporation report Above 42000 total employees in fiscal 2027? · Above 42000 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will NVIDIA Corporation report Above 44000 total employees in fiscal 2027? · Above 44000 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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